- guardian.co.uk, Tuesday November 2 2004 02.28 GMT
While the rest of the world is focused on the US presidential election today, the people running Britain's biggest quango will have one eye on another poll, later this week.
Thursday is the deadline for the referendum that should establish whether the north-east of England is to get a regional assembly, and whether the whole issue of elected regional bodies becomes a dead duck. The result could have significant implications for the future role of the Learning and Skills Council (LSC).
A resounding yes, which looks unlikely, could set in motion changes that would eventually slash the LSC to a fraction of its current operations and put a question mark over its survival.
The more ardent campaigners for elected regional assemblies have made no secret of wanting to get their hands on the LSC's adult skills budget. This amounts to £2.5bn nationally. "It would be very, very difficult for a college to have two funding masters," said Rob Wye, director of the chief executive's division at the LSC.
In addition, an elected regional assembly would be entitled to nominate five members to each of the local LSCs on its patch. A local LSC needs a minimum of 12 members, with a maximum of 16. Five-strong caucuses could wield a hefty influence.
A no vote, indicated as likely by a Mori poll on the day 1.9m postal ballot papers went out, would remove these threats.
No one at the LSC will admit that there is a preference, beyond admitting that Friday's announcement of the result is keenly awaited. The official view is that the quango is neutral on the referendum result.
"It is encouraging that suddenly skills are becoming an issue," said Wye. "People are fighting over it. A few years ago this wouldn't have happened, but now they do see skills as crucial for economic regeneration in the region."
The official line is that if the north- east does plump for an assembly, a modus operandi would be thrashed out in the same way that the quango has reached agreement with the regional development agencies (RDAs).
The tussle between LSCs and RDAs was settled in July in a "concordat" signed by the education secretary, Charles Clarke; the trade and industry secretary, Patricia Hewitt; Mark Haysom, the LSC chief executive; and Bryan Gray, chair of the North West Regional Development Agency, on behalf of all nine RDAs.
The myth that RDAs and the LSCs were jogging along happily was shattered this time last year when it emerged that the north-west RDA had launched a bid to take over planning and funding from its five local LSCs, a move furiously opposed by Haysom.
In the concordat, LSCs and RDAs agreed to identify the public funds each holds for adult training and skills and, subject to meeting the national targets each has been set, to "discuss how ... these funds can best be deployed".
In practice, for every pound the RDA brings to the party, the LSC puts in £15.
If the voters do confound expectations with a resounding yes vote and the elected regional assembly that emerges gets its hands on the LSC's adult skills budget for the north-east, the result will be an odd hybrid. Most of the country would presumably continue to see adult skills funded by the LSC.
A firm yes vote might revive the campaigns for elected regional assemblies for the north-west and Yorkshire and the Humber. Referendums in these regions were postponed, the official reason was concerns about postal voting.
If, further down the line, the LSC were thus to lose its adult-training budget across a third of the country, the case for handing over this cash and the planning function to regional government would snowball.
The quango could end up with just a funding and planning remit for 16- to 19-year-olds, an outcome that would cast serious doubts over its future.
